by AHD | Mar 26, 2019 | Investing w/ Alpha Gamma | Amazon, Howard Marks, tariffs
Podcast Time:
Luck, Risk and Avoiding Losers: My Interview with Oaktree Capital Co-founder Howard Marks [The Knowledge Project Ep. #53]
α γ → Well worth the hour to listen to such a wise and knowledgeable and successful value investor.
Articles and Quotes:
Latest memo from Howard Marks: Political Reality Meets Economic Reality
https://www.oaktreecapital.com/insights/howard-marks-memos
α γ → A great explanation of why tariffs are stupid.
First, there’s misunderstanding. The U.S. runs chronic trade deficits with most of its trading partners, and with China it amounted to $335 billion in 2017. Trump takes these deficits to mean our trading partners are winning and we’re losing. “We have countries ripping us off for years. . . . We have trade deficits; they have surpluses.” In particular, he says “China’s been killing us,” suggesting there’s something nefarious about trade deficits. But is that the correct inference? The other day I went to the barber for a haircut, and when I paid him, I ran a trade deficit. He got my money, and I got a haircut. I didn’t feel like I had lost. Likewise, Chinese businesses make money from the U.S., and U.S. consumers get the low-priced goods they want. Both sound like winners to me.
Ideas:
Amazon Hits $2000 and the Stock Market Takes a Dive
α γ → Last time Amazon (AMZN) hit its high of a few bucks over $2000 in early September 2018 the stock market proceeded to go on a rather precipitous decline until Xmas of approximately 30%. According to the trendline of Amazon’s ascent since it will again hit $2000 in early-to-mid May 2019. Will this again signal a significant market downturn? Is Amazon a market harbinger? Somewhat conspiratorially, we might argue that with Amazon having gone down to $1400-ish at Xmas and within 6 months regained a solid 25%+ Wall St will be ready to once again take their profit and have a massive sell-off which will once again drive the overall market down significantly. Is this kind of wave what we are going to see for the foreseeable future instead of the long run bulls (5+ years) followed by huge bear recessions (50% drops)?
by AHD | Apr 13, 2018 | Investing, My Archives | cobalt, rare earth metals, trade war, WTO
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4162971-chinas-secret-weapon
- China vs U.S. on Trade is a no-win war neither wants to play.
- In an all out trade war the U.S. wins.
- Measures China could take to even its score with the U.S. and what U.S. companies that could get hurt the most if relations sour to the extreme.
by AHD | Apr 10, 2018 | Books, My Archives | gratitude, investing
https://www.amazon.ca/dp/B018HDTZL6?ref_=r_ea_vl_b_0_rsw_ss_AAAUAAA
This is the story of Japan’s largest private investor, Wahei Takeda: how he made his fortune and how he thinks about money—making it, investing it and using it for good in the world—based on his profound teaching of maro, the core principle of his way of life and the foundation of his success. By learning about maro through the example of Wahei’s life, you can also become financially successful—and profoundly happy to boot.
Often called “the Warren Buffet of Japan,” Wahei Takeda is the most successful investor in the country, and no doubt he’s the happiest one, too! My success is a direct result of listening and applying Wahei’s philosophy of “Maro Up!” to my own life and business. We know from personal experience, that if you take what you learn in this ebook and apply it to yourself, you too, will see success blossom in your life.
I am very grateful to have read this short book about Wahei. You should take a moment and read this too.
by AHD | Apr 5, 2018 | Investing, My Archives | Amazon, compound interest
- Compound interest has been described by Albert Einstein as, ‘The most powerful force in the universe’.
- Einstein is also quoted as saying – “Compound interest is the eighth wonder of the world. He who understands it, earns it. He who doesn’t, pays it.”.
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4161269-amazon-powerful-force-universe
by AHD | Mar 19, 2018 | Investing, My Archives | Buffett, compound interest, free cash flow, patience, value investing, Wall Street
Part I
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4157375-basic-guide-successful-investing-part
- Understanding Free Cash Flow and its importance.
- Letting compound interest do much of the work for you.
Most investors jump into and out of stocks after a few years, or even months, and miss the true power of long-term investing. Sure, we take a beating here and there along the way, but quality always recovers and buying a stock in a high-quality company when it is priced as a bargain generally works out better than trading in and out. Remember, you are collecting those juicy dividends along the way. The annual dividend on 14,400 share in 2017 was $63,412.
So, sticking with quality companies and investing for the long term to allow the power of compound interest work for you are the first two key elements of successful investing. I will get into more about how I identify “quality companies” in practice as we move through the series.
Part II
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4157783-basic-guide-successful-investing-part-ii
- The Myths of Wall Street exposed.
- How does Warren Buffett Invest?
- Do you really trust Wall Street to have your best interests at heart?
- Interlude I – True story about an average woman who amassed $18 million on a salary of $15,000 per year.
If you want to be a millionaire you need to invest like one. The ultra-wealthy do not need all the income from their investments. And they certainly are not desperate to increase their income from investments every year. But it just happens anyway without their trying. How? I’m glad you asked.
You see, wealthy people can afford to wait for bargains.
There may be more skill, in terms of knowledge and experience, on Wall Street than most of us have. But we don’t really need that much skill. The thing we need the most is patience. Add a little skill and a solid plan to a lot of patience and you’ll do much better than relying on Wall Street.
by AHD | Mar 16, 2018 | Investing, My Archives | Bitcoin
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4153684-bitcoin-new-gold
- Bitcoin is often compared to gold, and for good reason.
- Gold and Bitcoin share many similar properties, but where gold lacks, Bitcoin seems to excel.
- Wait, that’s not all, there’s more good news.
- If Bitcoin becomes the “new gold” its price could go a lot higher.
But Wait, How Can Bitcoin be a “Store of Value”?
Many people have questioned Bitcoin’s ability to be considered a viable store of value due to its volatile price action. This is primarily because Bitcoin is still in the relatively early stages of its existence, and at this stage of the cycle Bitcoin is still more of a creator of value than a store of it, for now. Despite its sharp fall from recent all-time highs, Bitcoin is still up by roughly 1,000% over the past year. Moreover, it is up by an unprecedented 450,000,000% or so since its first two pizza “commercial” transactions was implemented in 2010, when Bitcoin was valued at just one quarter of just one cent. Once Bitcoin’s price stops ballooning and becomes more stable it will stop being a “creator of value” and can be viewed as a store of value instead, as well as a possible “more stable” form of a worldwide currency.
While the scenario I proposed may take several years to play out, various favorable developments may materialize as soon as the second half of this year. These factors could spark a significant rally in Bitcoin that may propel the digital asset’s prices considerably higher into year’s end. My end of year price target for Bitcoin is $35,000.
by AHD | Mar 15, 2018 | Investing, My Archives | Apple, tech stocks
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4156666-apple-tech-rally-exhausted-time-hedge
- Seeking Alpha often focuses on bottom-up investing: company-specific data. Most of a stock’s return is related to both the market’s movement and the sector it is in.
- Apple has rallied despite naysayers, alongside most of technology. Investors with limited technology exposure have suffered.
- “The trend is your friend” is common guidance that many value investors ignore. Investors that have bought out of favor value have done awful in recent years.
- Trends eventually break. Hedging technology firms like Apple is starting to make sense; selling covered calls is a time-honored approach to doing so.
The trend is your friend.
Be fearful when others are greedy and be greedy when others are fearful.
by AHD | Mar 12, 2018 | News & Announcements | Blingja, client, Mara St. Onge, social emotional learning
Mara St. Onge, Women of Distinction Award nominee
Congratulations to Mara St. Onge of Blingja Concepts (and all the other nominees) on the 2018 YWCA Women of Distinction Award nomination in the category of Education, Training & Development.
Founder of Blingja Concepts, Mara recognized the increased need for social emotional learning (SEL) curriculums to address behavioural breakdowns in classrooms. Utilizing her background as an educator in the school system for more than 20 years, she developed Blingja (Bling Out Your Inner Ninja), an SEL curriculum focused on mindfulness, helping children self-regulate their emotions in difficult situations. Unlike traditional SEL curriculums, Blingja is visually-focused and designed to be delivered in easy steps. Mara has created a unique social enterprise dedicated to supporting the local community, employing adults with barriers to employment and developmental disabilities to craft the therapeutic sensory tools that are used in the Blingja curriculum. Mara’s vision is to support educators and students in regulating their own emotions powerfully in any situation.
→ https://ywcavan.org
→ http://blingja.com
by AHD | Mar 11, 2018 | Investing, My Archives | Buffett
https://www.inc.com/marcel-schwantes/warren-buffett-says-hanging-out-with-this-kind-of-person-will-make-you-more-successful.html
Buffett wasn’t merely telling a teenager to stay away from bullies or the kid smoking pot in the back of the school. He’s teaching a life lesson for all of us about absorbing the very qualities and traits of successful people further down the path than you — the ones whom have demonstrated the people skills and character traits that will elevate us and make us better as leaders, workers, and human beings.
In growing your influence as a leader, business owner, or professional so others will gravitate to your inner circle, there are four things that you want to look for in people better than you, so you can “drift in that direction.”
…
- Hang out with people that have integrity.
- Hang out with intentionally focused people that know when to say ‘no.’
- Hang out with people that feed their minds by reading.
- Hang out with people that are legitimately loved by others.
by AHD | Mar 8, 2018 | Investing, My Archives | Netflix
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4154445-netflix-the-new-content-king-seemingly-unstoppable
- Netflix is seemingly unstoppable; in addition to being the best performing stock of the last decade, Netflix has already gained 65% in 2018 alone.
- With around 120 million subscribers and nearly 50% of total streaming time in the U.S., it’s difficult to debate Netflix’s status as the king of streaming.
- But with an $8 billion content budget this year Netflix threatens to become “the new content king” as well.
- The Disney “threat” appears to be significantly overrated.
- What to expect from the new content king going forward.
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